SMOLESmole Price

On October 13, Cleveland Fed President Harmack stated that the Federal Reserve needs to achieve a restrictive monetary policy stance to drive inflation back to the 2% target. She noted that the current policy position suggests that the timeline for inflation to decrease may exceed acceptable levels, thus "more tightening is needed." Harmack indicated that interest rate hikes may still be necessary in the future, although the timing remains uncertain. She favors a strategy of "small, more frequent" adjustments to help businesses and households plan ahead. Harmack mentioned that the costs for businesses are rising, and an increasing number of companies are beginning to pass these costs onto consumers. If prices are no longer constrained by demand, inflation may rise further or remain elevated. She pointed out that the greatest inflation risk is the formation of an "inflation mindset" among individuals and businesses, gradually accepting higher inflation levels, which would make it more difficult for the Fed to bring inflation back to target; some signs of this are already emerging. Regarding the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, Harmack stated that it is primarily driven by expectations of economic growth, market repricing of Fed policies, fiscal pressures, and a large volume of bond issuance. She noted that the current surge in data center investments is driving growth, but the financial environment still requires further tightening to help reduce inflation. Harmack also emphasized that the independence of the Federal Reserve is "always crucial." (Jin Shi)

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