What Is SWOLE

On September 12, TD Securities strategists indicated that they expect the Federal Reserve to initiate the first of three rate hikes in September, having previously predicted that the central bank would remain on hold for the remainder of 2026. Strategists, including Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg, wrote in today's research report: "We expect a total of three rate hikes in this cycle, with the latter two occurring in October and January of next year. The Fed may not provide forward guidance, but the dot plot is likely to lean hawkish." This expectation adjustment follows the release of the U.S. August CPI, which came in above expectations on Friday, prompting traders to raise their expectations for a recent Fed rate hike. The strategists noted in the report: "After the August CPI showed a lack of progress on inflation, we expect the Fed to initiate the rate hike cycle in September."

On September 12, Miles Jennings, the policy head and general counsel of a16z crypto, stated in an interview that some banks may not wish for the "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act" (the CLARITY Act) to pass and become law. He has not seen evidence supporting the banks' claim that "stablecoin rewards will lead to deposit outflows." Jennings believes that relying solely on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for administrative actions cannot provide founders with long-term certainty that transcends their terms; the approach of "substituting enforcement for legislation" during Gensler's tenure may continue to push crypto entrepreneurial activities away from the U.S. Yesterday, Republican senators in the U.S. Senate released a new version of the CLARITY Act text, just days before the first procedural vote on September 15. The revised bill claims to have incorporated 114 amendments proposed by Democrats and emphasizes its aim to establish the first comprehensive regulatory framework for the crypto market in the U.S. The new version includes regulatory provisions targeting "non-decentralized finance trading protocols." Relevant protocols that meet the definition will need to register with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), with accompanying rules to be developed by the CFTC and the U.S. Treasury; the bill further clarifies that DeFi-related provisions primarily apply to spot and cash digital commodity trading. However, there remains significant uncertainty about whether the bill can advance. The new text does not include major changes in ethical provisions, which are still enforced by the Department of Justice, while Democrats previously requested more enforcement authority for state attorneys general. Additionally, issues such as stablecoin earnings, illegal finance, and conflicts of interest related to Trump's crypto assets continue to be major obstacles in bipartisan negotiations. The Senate will conduct a procedural vote on advancing the CLARITY Act on September 15. Since advancing the process requires 60 votes, and the Republicans currently hold only 53 seats, Democratic support will be crucial for the bill's continued progress.

On September 12, CNN reported, citing two U.S. officials, that Saudi Arabia's critical east-west oil pipeline system was attacked by projectiles on Thursday local time. Preliminary analysis indicates that pump stations adjacent to the pipeline were struck, with satellite images showing extensive fire damage at one pump station and a smaller fire with smoke at another. It remains unclear who is responsible for the attack, whether the pipeline itself was damaged, and how long repairs will take. One U.S. official stated that the drones used in the attack originated from the direction of Iraq. The importance of the Saudi east-west oil pipeline has increased since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iraq war. Due to Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has redirected approximately 5 million barrels per day of crude oil, originally destined for tankers in the Persian Gulf, through this pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Meanwhile, the Houthi forces have claimed they will target any Saudi vessels attempting to pass through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, putting this alternative oil export route at risk.