RISRiser Price

On July 28, crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that the concentration of BTC spot prices within a 5% range has been steadily climbing, rising from 10% in May to the current 12%. Although it still has some distance to go before reaching the critical threshold of 15%, it has already exceeded the level that triggered significant volatility in May. The logic is that when chips are overly concentrated in a certain price range, small price changes can exacerbate the turnover of sensitive chips, thereby triggering greater volatility. Historical data shows that when concentration exceeds 15%, the probability of a major market move is higher, reaching 18% in November 2025 and 16% in January 2026. However, after February this year, the price decline triggered a diminishing marginal effect on the supply side. Prolonged low circulation and low turnover have made chip concentration less prominent than before. Yet in May, a concentration of only 10% already led to significant volatility, indicating that market sentiment has become more fragile and unstable. The analyst judges that if BTC continues to trade sideways in the $62,000 to $66,000 range for some time, chip concentration will inevitably rise further, ultimately forcing a violent upward or downward breakout to redistribute the overly concentrated chips. This may be an important directional choice near the end of the current bear market. The 5% spot chip concentration has successfully helped predict volatility directions on multiple key occasions. The current rebound in this indicator suggests that the market is gradually approaching the next window of drastic movement.

On July 14, spot gold broke through $4,100, rising 2.41% intraday. Spot silver's intraday gain expanded to 3%, quoted at $59.4 per ounce.

On July 2, spot gold surpassed $4,140 per ounce, rising 2.71% during the day.