BUBBLEImaginary Ones Price

On July 27, senior macroeconomist and head of research at Goldmoney, Alasdair Macleod, warned that the current valuation bubble in U.S. stocks may have surpassed the level seen on the eve of the Great Depression in 1929, and financial markets are facing the risk of an "ultimate total crash." Macleod stated that imbalances in the U.S. Treasury market, reduced allocations from overseas buyers, and rising U.S. debt pressures could drive yields higher and eventually impact stock valuations. He believes that if market confidence reverses, the S&P 500 index could face a value drawdown of more than 90%. The scale of U.S. debt continues to climb, with financing and refinancing pressures of approximately $10 trillion to $11 trillion over the next 12 months. As buyers of U.S. Treasuries dwindle, the Federal Reserve may be forced to expand its balance sheet and print money to stabilize markets, further weakening the purchasing power of fiat currency. Macleod argues that modern financial assets are inherently dependent on the credit system, with stocks, bank deposits, and U.S. dollars all carrying a certain degree of counterparty risk. In contrast, gold and silver, as physical assets independent of government credit, could become safe-haven choices in an environment of extreme financial risk.

On June 26, Arthur Hayes stated during his participation in the "Bunny Blockchain" podcast that if he had to guess when the AI bubble would burst, he believes the most likely time would be in 2028. The reasoning is simple: the current round of AI debt is largely incurred between 2024 and 2026, while the actual lifespan of GPUs is only two years, yet Wall Street depreciates them over six years. Two and a half years later, will the H100 and Blackwell chips, purchased at high prices, still generate sufficient revenue? If, by then, Chinese models perform just as well running on Huawei chips, priced at only one-tenth, the entire economic logic of Western data centers would evaporate instantly.

On June 24, Ningquan Asset, founded by Yang Dong, pointed out in its "2026 Mid-Year Investment Report" released on the 23rd that the current AI bubble is of a global nature. According to the Buffett Indicator, which is the ratio of stock market capitalization to GDP, the ratio reached over 180 at the peak of the internet bubble, while currently in the U.S. it is over 240, and South Korea and Japan are also around 200. Therefore, this bubble is essentially a mega bubble similar to the U.S. internet bubble at the turn of the century; the current frenzy in the South Korean stock market is something we have also experienced.