What Is HOTCROSS

On August 25, local time, a source close to the Iranian negotiation team stated that Iran wishes to clearly communicate its position and negotiation terms regarding the Strait of Hormuz to the U.S. through Pakistan. The source mentioned that during a meeting on the 24th with the visiting Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan, General Munir, Iran articulated its stance to the Pakistani side. The conditions proposed by Iran include the U.S. adherence to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding and the fulfillment of relevant clauses, with the fifth clause concerning the management arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz. The source indicated that Pakistan is seeking to relay these conditions to the U.S.

On August 25, local time, a source close to the Iranian negotiation team stated that Iran wishes to clearly convey its position and negotiation terms regarding the Strait of Hormuz to the U.S. through Pakistan. The source mentioned that during a meeting on the 24th with the visiting Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan, General Munir, Iran articulated its position to the Pakistani side. The conditions proposed by Iran include the U.S. adherence to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding and the fulfillment of related terms, with the fifth clause concerning the management arrangements of the Strait of Hormuz. The source indicated that Pakistan is seeking to relay these conditions to the U.S.

On August 25, despite Nvidia's earnings report and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh's speech at Jackson Hole being the focus of the market this week, traders have begun to prepare for the market volatility brought by the November U.S. midterm elections. Cboe data shows a significant upward shift in the VIX futures term structure, with September contracts around 17.4, October rising to 19, and November further increasing to 19.7. Historical data indicates that midterm election years often accompany higher stock market volatility. Since 1945, the actual volatility in midterm election years has been above the previous year 80% of the time, with an average increase of 3.5 percentage points; the average return of the S&P 500 in midterm election years is only about 4%. This year's unique risk lies in the AI investment boom. As internal dissent over massive capital expenditures on AI infrastructure begins to surface within both parties, the election results may not only affect the congressional landscape but could also directly impact the hottest AI investment themes in the current U.S. stock market. Cboe has launched daily options on the S&P 500 that expire on election day and the following day, with current market implied pricing showing that the expected one-day volatility for the S&P 500 on November 4, the day after the election, is about 1.4%. Notably, the VIX closed at 15.8 on Monday, still significantly below the long-term average of 19.4, indicating that current market volatility and hedging costs remain low. Analysts believe that the market is pricing in election risks in advance, but the real risks may not yet be fully reflected in asset prices.