Analysis: Micron and SanDisk's Billion-Dollar Holdings May Trigger 'AI Stock God' Leopold's Collapse
On August 15, SEC filings revealed that Situational Awareness LP, led by Leopold Aschenbrenner, made significant adjustments to its portfolio by the end of Q2 2026, shifting from a mixed long-short strategy to a highly concentrated long position in AI hardware and infrastructure. Compared to the previous 13F filing, as of June 30, 2026, the most notable changes in the fund were focused on storage chips. Micron's holdings surged from approximately $5.86 million at the end of Q1 to about $5.574 billion; SanDisk's holdings increased from around $724 million to approximately $5.674 billion. By the end of Q2, Micron and SanDisk together accounted for about 55% of the fund's publicly disclosed stock portfolio, becoming the heaviest risk exposure in the portfolio. Meanwhile, Situational Awareness also increased its investment in AI infrastructure. Bloom Energy's holdings rose to about $1.899 billion, TSMC ADR increased to about $1.265 billion, and a new position in Nebius of about $1.233 billion was established. Additionally, stocks related to computing power, electricity, data centers, and mining, such as CoreWeave, Core Scientific, Applied Digital, IREN, and Riot, also appeared on the heavy holdings list. Notably, at the end of Q1, the fund still held a significant amount of put options, including those related to SMH, NVIDIA, Broadcom, AMD, Oracle, Micron, and TSMC; however, by the end of Q2, these hedging positions were significantly reduced, with portfolio risk clearly concentrated on AI longs. Recent market conditions have also confirmed the volatility of this trading chain. Since July, the AI chip and storage sectors have faced multiple sell-offs, with related stocks like Micron, SanDisk, and SK Hynix experiencing continuous pressure, leading the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to record a rare monthly decline. As August began, with cooling inflation data and a recovery in AI earnings sentiment, stocks like SanDisk, Micron, CoreWeave, and Nebius showed significant rebounds, bringing major US indices closer to or surpassing previous highs. This indicates that Leopold's publicly disclosed stock portfolio was in an extremely sensitive position at the end of Q2: benefiting fully from narratives around AI computing power, storage, and electricity during upward movements; while facing simultaneous pressure from multiple highly correlated positions during downward movements. Should leverage and margin calls be added, a simple sector pullback could quickly evolve into a liquidity crisis. From the two 13F filings, it is likely that the key stocks causing Situational Awareness's sharp decline in July were concentrated in Micron, SanDisk, Bloom Energy, TSMC, Nebius, CoreWeave, Core Scientific, Applied Digital, IREN, and Riot, among others in the AI hardware and infrastructure chain. Particularly, Micron and SanDisk, which together accounted for a significant portion of the portfolio by the end of Q2, are the most noteworthy positions to watch in this liquidation storm.
