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On August 19, shipping data indicated a change in the actual traffic pattern through the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler data shows that over 80% of vessels passing through the Strait in the past two weeks have chosen the Oman side route, which has been authorized by the United Nations but previously opposed by Iran. Analysts believe that while both the U.S. and Iran claim control over the Strait, neither side fully controls this critical global energy passage. Kpler's head of crude oil analysis, Homayoun Farahzadi, stated that it is becoming increasingly clear that Iran has at least partially lost control over the Strait. A month ago, Kpler found almost no vessels using the Oman route, but this proportion has now risen to over 80%. Meanwhile, the number of vessels opting for the Iranian-preferred route has significantly decreased, affecting Iran's ability to collect tolls through the Strait. The U.S. continues to monitor shipping safety through maritime military deployments. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted that the oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz and the diversion route currently stands at about 15 million barrels per day, close to the pre-conflict level of around 20 million barrels. However, Iran still retains some deterrent capability. Analysts point out that if Iran's goal is to fully control the Strait, it has never truly achieved this objective; yet, creating risks and impacting shipping through military actions remains an important strategic tool for it. Currently, Iran and Oman are discussing the restoration of free navigation arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar has indicated that if a relevant agreement is reached, it could create conditions for the U.S. and Iran to return to the negotiating table. However, Trump recently stated that there are currently no negotiations or dialogues between the U.S. and Iran.

On August 19, shipping data indicates a change in the actual traffic pattern through the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler data shows that over 80% of vessels passing through the Strait in the past two weeks have chosen the Oman side route, which has received UN authorization but was previously opposed by Iran. Analysts believe that although both the U.S. and Iran claim to control the Strait of Hormuz, neither side has fully controlled this critical global energy passage. Kpler's head of crude oil analysis, Hormoz Farahzadi, stated that it is becoming increasingly clear that Iran has at least partially lost control over the Strait. A month ago, Kpler found almost no vessels using the Oman route, but now that figure has risen to over 80%. Meanwhile, the number of vessels choosing the Iranian-preferred route has significantly decreased, affecting Iran's ability to collect transit fees through the Strait. The U.S. continues to monitor shipping security through its maritime military deployments. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz and rerouted around it currently reaches about 15 million barrels per day, close to the pre-conflict level of about 20 million barrels. However, Iran still retains some deterrent capability. Analysts point out that if Iran's goal is to fully control the Strait, it has never truly achieved this objective; yet creating risks through military actions and affecting shipping remains an important strategic tool. Currently, Iran and Oman are discussing the restoration of free navigation arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar has indicated that if a relevant agreement is reached, it could create conditions for the U.S. and Iran to return to the negotiating table. However, Trump recently stated that there are currently no negotiations or dialogue between the U.S. and Iran.

On August 19, Serenity reported that as AI infrastructure development accelerates, the optical communication industry is facing a severe supply-demand imbalance. The demand for key components such as lasers, TIAs, and DSPs continues to exceed supply capabilities, indicating that the photonics industry may be entering a supercycle similar to that of the storage industry. Serenity noted that recent performance from optical communication companies, including LITE, MTSI, and AAOI, shows that the demand for optical modules driven by AI is rapidly increasing, leading to significant strain on the related supply chain. During the Elazr investor meeting, the company's general manager stated that the current optical supply still lags far behind market demand, and shortages in the AI optical communication supply chain are expected to persist for several years. He pointed out that the entire supply chain is currently in a state of shortage, with supply capabilities unable to meet market demand. Shortages exist not only in laser chips but also across multiple AI infrastructure segments, including PCBs, substrates, and packaging. Serenity believes that as the visibility of demand in the AI industry extends into the coming years, while the supply chain continues to be constrained by capacity bottlenecks, the photonics industry may be replicating the supercycle previously seen in the storage industry, potentially lasting until 2027 or even longer.