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On October 8, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the Fed's decision to raise interest rates in September was the result of multiple pieces of evidence accumulated over several months, rather than being driven by a single data point. Waller recalled that the Fed had consecutively lowered rates by 75 basis points from September to December 2025. However, in the first half of 2026, the labor market stabilized, inflation progress stalled, conflicts in the Middle East pushed up energy prices, AI developments increased technology consumption prices, and trade conflicts and new tariffs also added upward pressure. After the inflation data in August exceeded expectations, the Fed decided to raise rates in September. Waller noted that the latest data reinforced the assessment of 'stable employment and excessively high inflation.' The core PCE in August rose by 3% year-on-year, and since spring 2024, core inflation has generally been around 2.5% to 3.0%, above the 2% target. He emphasized, 'At least in the near term, policy will focus on the inflation side of our mandate.' Waller is not overly concerned that tightening policy will lead to a severe slowdown, but he is worried that accelerating inflation could raise inflation expectations across the board. Regarding future paths, Waller indicated the possibility of further rate hikes, such as an increase of 75 basis points, but he did not commit to a specific pace or magnitude, emphasizing that it depends on the data. The September forecasts showed that out of 18 participants, 16 expected at least one more rate hike this year, while 4 expected two hikes. The market believes there is an 85% probability of at least one rate hike before December, and nearly 80% probability of at least two hikes by March 2027. Waller stated that if the data meets expectations, further rate hikes are anticipated, but they do not need to occur at consecutive meetings, as long as they are implemented within an acceptable timeframe.

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has issued a statement requiring EU crypto firms to stop providing services related to stablecoins that do not comply with the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) framework, giving a three-month deadline to address existing risk exposures. ESMA stated on Thursday that national regulators should require relevant firms to promptly manage their remaining exposure to non-compliant stablecoins, no later than January 8, 2027. This guidance applies to crypto services regulated under MiCA, including trading platforms, exchange services, order execution, custody, transfers, investment advice, and portfolio management. ESMA stated that crypto firms should implement technical, contractual, and organizational controls to prevent EU customers from acquiring or increasing exposure to unauthorized stablecoins. Regulators may allow limited services to assist customers in exiting existing positions, including liquidation, exchange, withdrawal, transfer, and custody, but such activities must be temporary and closely monitored. This update expands on the guidance issued by ESMA in January 2025, which called for restrictions on trading and exchange services involving non-compliant stablecoins.

On October 8, according to the market thematic report released by QCP Macro, negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding navigation arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz have stalled. The U.S. has shifted to pressure tactics, including withdrawing the Iranian delegation and imposing additional sanctions, although Qatar's mediation channels remain open. Currently, the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to 3, compared to a normal average of 26. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has decreased by 28% since May. Energy transportation costs have also risen significantly, with crude oil transportation prices from West Africa to China reaching $27.22 per barrel, a 319% increase from the average of $7.37 per barrel since the beginning of the year. Although crude oil exports have returned to normal, refined oil transportation volumes are still lagging by about 33%. QCP notes that the tightening supply of tankers may indicate that future delivery costs will remain elevated. In the crypto market, the IPO of Anthropic has been postponed to mid-November, with market valuation expectations around $2 trillion; Strategy has slowed down BTC purchases and is prioritizing STRC buybacks; crypto ETF fund flows have also cooled, and the advancement of the U.S. Clarity Act has similarly stalled. A key question for the market now is whether the rising geopolitical premium will further drive the unwinding of risk asset positions, or if the current market positions are already fragile enough to amplify this round of shocks.