AUTUMN คืออะไร

On September 14, U.S. President Trump stated that the only control needed for artificial intelligence is a strong president, and the United States currently has such a president, far exceeding what is necessary. The Trump administration has already prevented individuals in the AI field from engaging in harmful or potentially harmful 'behaviors,' such as those by Dalio, and we will continue to do so. (Jin Shi)

On September 14, Business Insider reported that Michael Burry, the investor who inspired 'The Big Short', stated in a post on X platform on Sunday night that the calls from executives at AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic to slow down AI development are 'selfish'. Burry outlined four reasons: first, large language models are not AI and will not become AGI, so there is nothing to slow down; second, slowing down benefits incumbents and hinders smaller competitors; third, promoting AI as an extinction-level threat fuels the 'hype and boasting' that supports IPOs; fourth, the intention to slow down provides cover for 'truly uncontrollable growth slowdowns'. Burry further stated in his Substack that the support from senior executives at Anthropic and OpenAI for slowing down is 'to enhance their perceived power before an IPO', and claimed that models like Claude and ChatGPT do not achieve true reasoning capabilities. Previously, AI leaders such as Sam Altman and Dario Amodei have called for a slowdown, with Musk also expressing support.

On September 14, as the U.S. core CPI for August heated up again, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September rapidly increased. Preston Caldwell, a senior economist at Morningstar, believes that core inflation is still insufficient for the Fed to continue delaying rate hikes, and the probability of a rate hike in September has clearly risen; Fed Chair Waller's previously hawkish signals have further strengthened market expectations. However, Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, pointed out that rate hikes themselves do not mean the end of the bull market in U.S. stocks. Statistics from six tightening cycles since 1994 show that the S&P 500 typically faces pressure in the months following the first rate hike, but the average increase 12 months later reaches 6.7%, with a median increase as high as 10.7%. Historically, 2022 and 1997 yielded starkly different results. After the Fed began raising rates in 2022, the S&P 500 experienced a maximum drawdown of about 25%, ultimately accompanied by recession fears; whereas after the first rate hike in 1997, the S&P 500 rose 42% in the following year, supported by economic growth and a surge in internet investments. LPL believes that the current environment is more akin to the late 1990s rather than 2022: the U.S. economy remains resilient, inflation, although re-accelerating, is far below the 2022 peak, and the AI investment cycle may continue to support corporate capital expenditures. However, LPL does not believe that U.S. stocks will simply replicate the 42% increase of 1997; the key factor determining the subsequent market trend will still be whether the rate hikes ultimately lead to an economic recession.