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The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, set to be released on Friday at 8:30 PM Beijing time, may directly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week. In a recent article by Nick Timiraos, chief economics reporter for The Wall Street Journal, he noted that throughout the summer, Fed officials have been debating whether current interest rates are sufficiently high to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Spring price data had exceeded expectations, but there was a cooling in June and July. The August data on Friday will further test whether this improvement is a trend reversal or just another temporary easing after inflation has been above target for five consecutive years. Economists expect the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, to rise by 0.2% month-on-month in August. The difference between 'sufficient to support continued waiting' and 'forcing the Fed to raise rates' may be as little as 0.1 percentage points. In July, the Fed's meeting kept interest rates unchanged, but three officials voted in favor of a rate hike. Subsequently, several officials indicated that if inflation does not continue to improve, they may join the rate hike camp. Fed Chair Kevin Walsh's remarks at last month's Jackson Hole meeting leaned noticeably towards the pro-rate hike side. He stated that there is little evidence that lending conditions are restraining the economy, and the better inflation data since summer is not enough to convince him that the underlying trend is improving. Walsh did not specify what kind of data would satisfy him. Former senior Fed economist Vincent Reinhart remarked that this effectively turns the market into a test for the new chair: investors have priced in a rate hike scenario that Walsh has never committed to, and he will either have to deliver on it or explain why he does not.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, set to be released at 8:30 PM Beijing time on Friday, could directly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week. According to Nick Timiraos, chief economics reporter for The Wall Street Journal, referred to as the 'Fed's megaphone', Fed officials have been debating all summer whether current interest rates are high enough to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Spring price data had exceeded expectations, but there was a cooling in June and July. The August data on Friday will further test whether this improvement is a trend reversal or just another temporary easing after inflation has been above target for five consecutive years. Economists expect the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, to rise by 0.2% month-on-month in August. The difference between 'sufficient to support continued waiting' and 'forcing the Fed to raise rates' may be just 0.1 percentage points. In July, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but three officials voted in favor of a rate hike. Since then, several officials have indicated that they might join the rate hike camp if inflation does not continue to improve. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks at last month's Jackson Hole meeting leaned noticeably towards supporting a rate hike. He stated that there is little evidence that borrowing conditions are restraining the economy, and the better inflation data since summer is not enough to convince him that the underlying trend is improving. Warsh did not specify what kind of data would satisfy him. Former senior Fed economist Vincent Reinhart noted that this effectively turns the market into a test for the new chair: investors have priced in a rate hike scenario that Warsh has never committed to, and he must either deliver on it or explain why he won't.

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