$WATERとは

On August 19, according to Lookonchain monitoring, a newly created wallet received 9.3 million KTA (approximately $685,000) and 2 billion GALA (approximately $3 million) through a cross-chain bridge, and then sold these tokens for 1,902 ETH (approximately $3.64 million). This large-scale sell-off triggered significant market volatility; according to Poloniex market data, the price of KTA dropped by as much as 37%, while the price of GALA fell by 15%.

On August 19, VanEck stated that Bitcoin's nearly 11-month adjustment period may be nearing its end, with the market potentially entering a new accumulation phase. The VanEck research team, including Head of Digital Asset Research Matthew Sigel and Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush, found through their 'Bitcoin Capitulation Check' model that 8 out of 12 current market indicators have shown extreme pessimistic signals, and all 12 indicators had entered the panic sell-off zone in the past three months. Researchers noted that this data suggests the Bitcoin market seems to have undergone a price 'capitulation' phase and is approaching or has already entered an accumulation period. Meanwhile, signs of market inflows are improving. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded nearly $300 million in net inflows on Monday, marking the highest single-day inflow since May 5. In the past three Bitcoin bear market cycles, the average duration from market peak to maximum drawdown has been about 12.7 months. Currently, this adjustment has entered its 11th month, and according to historical cycle patterns, the market may gradually complete its bottoming process and enter an accumulation phase between September and November. However, VanEck cautions that market capitulation signals should not be seen as definitive indicators for short-term buying. Historical data shows that when 8 to 12 indicators simultaneously show extreme signals, Bitcoin's average returns over the next 90 and 180 days tend to be below long-term benchmark levels. It is expected that the adjustment low in this cycle may be milder than in previous bear markets, primarily due to the development of spot Bitcoin ETFs, broader institutional investor participation, and the current market not experiencing chain reactions similar to the collapses of FTX, Celsius, and Terra Luna. Additionally, in the past 30 days, long-term holders of Bitcoin (those holding for over a year) have reduced their holdings by approximately 356,000 BTC, bringing their total to about 11.84 million BTC, causing the proportion of long-term holders to fall below 60% for the first time in months. VanEck believes this reflects that some long-term investors are releasing their positions, but the overall market structure has not yet shown the extreme deleveraging seen in past cycles.

Josh Brown, a well-known financial commentator in the U.S., stated in an interview with CNBC that a long-term interest rate of 5% may not devastate the stock market as previously feared. He believes that the U.S. financial system currently holds a substantial amount of cash, with approximately $9 trillion in money market funds and deposit accounts. For many savers, especially the baby boomer generation, a 5% risk-free return translates to higher interest income, which could further support spending on travel, housing, and other consumption. The real pressure is on those highly leveraged companies that have long relied on low interest rates and borrowing to sustain their operations. In a high interest rate environment, funds are likely to concentrate more on companies with healthier balance sheets and higher quality.