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On September 10, QCP released a macro thematic report stating that the yen has recently surged from around 160 to approximately 154, primarily driven by the normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, the unwinding of carry trades, and a weakening dollar. Japan's foreign exchange reserves fell by $87.8 billion in August, with a reduction of $87.8 billion in securities holdings, possibly related to yen intervention funding arrangements, raising concerns about further intervention risks. Regarding inflation, QCP believes that the spike in PCE inflation this spring was mainly driven by energy prices. From February to May, non-durable goods contributed about 0.85 percentage points to core PCE year-on-year growth, while energy alone contributed about 0.89 percentage points; as of July, the energy contribution had dropped to 0.48 percentage points. However, core PCE remains at 3.3%, indicating that the decline in energy prices has not fully alleviated the Federal Reserve's concerns about broad inflationary pressures. The labor market remains resilient, with the U.S. adding 162,000 non-farm jobs in August, significantly exceeding market expectations, and employment data for June and July was revised down by a total of 55,000. The average job addition over the past three months is about 71,000. QCP believes that there has not been a clear slowdown in the labor market, supporting the 'soft landing' trade, although household financing costs remain relatively high. Meanwhile, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, and the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stands at approximately 286.6 million barrels, at a historical low, indicating that inflation risks from energy supply shocks are still difficult to dissipate. Recently, Brent crude oil has climbed back above $100 per barrel. QCP raises a key question: If employment continues to be resilient while inflation is primarily driven by energy, can the Federal Reserve maintain its current stance for the year? If core inflation remains stubbornly high, expectations for policy tightening may heat up again.

On September 10, QCP released a macro thematic report stating that the yen has recently surged from around 160 to approximately 154, primarily driven by the normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, the unwinding of carry trades, and a weakening dollar. Japan's foreign exchange reserves fell by $87.8 billion in August, with a decrease of $87.8 billion in securities holdings, possibly related to yen intervention funding arrangements, raising concerns about further intervention risks. Regarding inflation, QCP believes that the spike in PCE inflation this spring was mainly driven by energy prices. From February to May, non-durable goods contributed about 0.85 percentage points to the year-on-year increase in core PCE, while energy alone contributed about 0.89 percentage points; as of July, the energy contribution has dropped to 0.48 percentage points. However, core PCE remains at 3.3%, indicating that the decline in energy prices has not fully alleviated the Federal Reserve's concerns about broad inflationary pressures. The labor market remains resilient, with the U.S. adding 162,000 non-farm jobs in August, significantly above market expectations, and the employment data for June and July was revised down by a total of 55,000. The average job growth over the past three months is about 71,000. QCP believes that there has not yet been a clear slowdown in the labor market, and the 'soft landing' scenario still has support, although household financing costs remain relatively high. Meanwhile, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is constrained, and the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is at approximately 286.6 million barrels, a historical low, indicating that inflation risks from energy supply shocks are still difficult to dissipate. Recently, Brent crude oil has climbed back above $100 per barrel. QCP raises a key question: If employment continues to be resilient while inflation is primarily driven by energy, can the Fed remain inactive for the rest of the year? If core inflation remains stubbornly high, expectations for policy tightening may rise again.

The first plenary meeting of the 24th session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress was held on the morning of the 25th at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, chaired by Chairman Zhao Leji. On behalf of the State Council, Vice Minister of Finance Lin Zechang presented a report on the budget execution situation since the beginning of this year. The report indicated that fiscal policies are becoming more proactive and precise, with overall stable budget execution and fiscal operations. It outlined the implementation of the budget resolution from the fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress and proposed the next steps for fiscal priorities: effectively implementing more proactive fiscal policies; accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system; ensuring and improving people's livelihoods; strengthening risk prevention and resolution in key areas; continuously deepening fiscal management reforms; and enhancing comprehensive fiscal supervision. (Xinhua News Agency)