$MYSTMYST 価格

CITIC Securities' research report argues that the recent adjustments in tech stocks cannot be simply attributed to high U.S. long-term bond yields. The underlying issue is the forward pricing of AI-related stocks, which involves three key narrative variables: 1) Whether the pace and scope of commercialization can keep up with market expectations; 2) Whether computational power advantages lead to market share and pricing power advantages; 3) Whether the current gap in computational power will significantly widen the future gap in AI models. The current consensus concern is the pace and scope of commercialization, with the biggest potential variable being whether 'anti-distillation' will widen the model gap in the future. As for macroeconomic factors, the U.S. Treasury's announcement of bond buybacks has a very limited impact. However, in the short term, a weaker dollar and reduced interest rate hike expectations are conducive to the convergence of K-shaped differentiation in the global market. Nevertheless, the fundamental factors causing the sustained rise in U.S. long-term rates have not changed fundamentally, and there may be continued disturbances in the near future. Under the influence of these external disturbances, the funding structure of A-shares in the short term determines that the complexity of market dynamics is increasing, and during this volatile market phase, it is essential to manage psychological expectations and avoid excessive grand narratives.

CITIC Securities' research report argues that the recent adjustments in tech stocks cannot be simply attributed to high U.S. long-term bond yields. The underlying issue is the forward pricing of AI-related stocks, which involves three key narrative variables: 1) whether the pace and scope of commercialization can keep up with market expectations; 2) whether computational advantages translate into market share and pricing power; 3) whether the current gap in computational power will significantly widen the future AI model gap. The current consensus concern revolves around the pace and scope of commercialization, with the biggest potential variable being whether 'anti-distillation' will widen the model gap in the future. As for macroeconomic factors, the impact of the U.S. Treasury's announcement to repurchase long-term bonds is very limited. However, in the short term, a weakening dollar and a reduction in interest rate hike expectations are conducive to the convergence of K-shaped differentiation in the global market. Nevertheless, the factors causing the sustained rise in U.S. long-term rates have not fundamentally changed, and there may be continued disturbances in the near future. Under the influence of these external disturbances, the funding structure of A-shares in the short term determines that the complexity of market dynamics is increasing, and during this phase of market volatility, it is essential to manage psychological expectations and avoid excessive grand narratives.

On August 23, crypto analyst Ali Charts stated that historically, at the end of two bear market cycles for Bitcoin, a characteristic pattern emerged: a strong weekly reversal candlestick appeared unexpectedly to most market participants, serving as a signal for trend reversal. Such market movements typically begin with a short squeeze. As prices rise, bearish traders continue to increase their short positions, and as the upward momentum accelerates, these short positions are forced to liquidate, further driving prices up. Data shows that in 2019, Bitcoin experienced a weekly increase of 31.98%, which helped confirm the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new upward phase. In January 2023, against a backdrop of extreme pessimism following the FTX collapse, Bitcoin rose 24.90% in a single week, reversing a significant amount of bearish sentiment. The market may currently be exhibiting a similar trend. Many investors previously expected Bitcoin to form a market bottom in October based on the four-year cycle theory, but Bitcoin has risen from $62,700 to $79,500, achieving a weekly increase of 26.81%. The analyst believes that if historical patterns repeat, this strong weekly reversal could be an early signal for Bitcoin entering a new upward cycle.