ESSEssentia Harga

On August 24, Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the 'voice of the Federal Reserve,' pointed out that Waller's silent reform at the Fed is not accidental. He has consistently criticized the core communication tools introduced by the Fed since 2012, namely the 'dot plot' and economic forecast summaries. Timiraos noted that many on Wall Street cheered for Waller due to his 15-year history, viewing him as a natural inflation hawk. However, the meeting minutes and quarterly forecast data released years later indicate that his understanding of the causes of inflation is quite atypical. His logic relies less on traditional demand-side indicators like unemployment rates and is deeply rooted in supply-side factors and government policies. During the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, Fed colleagues generally viewed the high unemployment rate of 9% as an effective means to suppress prices through economic idle capacity. Waller, however, recognized permanent structural damage. He pointed out that capital failed to flow to the most efficient production areas, the labor market lost its ability to adjust, and unpredictable policies from Washington exacerbated the situation. If unemployment is structural rather than temporary, it cannot constrain prices. Timiraos stated that, in hindsight, Waller's pessimistic predictions about economic growth potential have partially come true. As he warned, increasingly tightening regulations, fiscal, and trade policies have become detrimental to growth, undermining the economy's productive capacity. A shrinking economy reaches its capacity limits more quickly, making it more susceptible to external inflation shocks. However, the inflation crisis he warned about was delayed by a full decade. Now, with decision-making power, Waller faces a macroeconomic environment that is entirely different from that of years past. After five years of 'excess' inflation, he must assess economic trends amidst a wave of technological shocks whose scale no one can accurately predict. Over the past year, he has suggested that AI-driven technological advancements could provide greater growth space for the economy, and that technology often reduces costs over time. Last month, when asked how to interpret the current economy, he described the same core issue he faced 15 years ago. Waller admitted, 'We are inferring total supply. We are making judgments about what productivity is.'

On August 24, Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the 'Fed Whisperer,' published an article pointing out that Waller's silent reform at the Federal Reserve is not coincidental. He has consistently held a strong critical stance towards the Fed's core communication tools introduced in 2012—the 'dot plot' and economic forecast summaries. Timiraos noted that many on Wall Street cheered for Waller due to his 15-year-old resume, viewing him as a natural inflation hawk. However, the meeting minutes and quarterly forecast data released years later indicate that his understanding of inflation causes is quite atypical. His logic relies less on traditional demand-side indicators like unemployment rates and is deeply rooted in supply-side factors and government policy. During the aftermath of the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis, his Fed colleagues generally viewed the high unemployment rate of 9% as effective idle capacity to suppress prices. Waller, however, saw permanent structural damage. He pointed out that capital failed to flow into the most efficient production areas, the labor market lost its ability to adjust, and unpredictable policies from Washington exacerbated the situation. If unemployment is structural rather than temporary, it cannot constrain prices. Timiraos stated that in hindsight, Waller's pessimistic predictions about economic growth potential have partially come true. As he warned, increasingly tightening regulations, fiscal, and trade policies have become detrimental to growth, harming the economy's productive capacity. A shrinking economy will reach its capacity limits faster, making it more susceptible to external inflation shocks. However, the inflation crisis he warned about was delayed by a full decade. Now, with decision-making power, Waller faces a macroeconomic environment that is drastically different from that of the past. After five years of 'excess' inflation, he must assess the economic direction amid a wave of technological shocks whose scale no one can accurately predict. Over the past year, he has suggested that AI-driven technological advancements could provide greater growth potential for the economy, and technology often tends to lower costs over time. Last month, when asked how to interpret the current economy, he described the same core issue he faced 15 years ago. Waller admitted, 'We are inferring total supply. We are making judgments about what productivity is.'

On August 24, according to Caixin, Barclays interest rate strategists stated in a report that Fed Chair Waller may advocate for reducing the Fed's use of forward guidance, as he believes it is a source of past policy mistakes. Waller is also expected to emphasize the long-term drivers of the economy, particularly productivity trends and their impact on potential growth. He is unlikely to provide recent policy guidance, but the market will seek more information on how the FOMC plans to bring inflation back to the 2% target.