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On August 27, the US July PCE year-on-year growth was 3.7%, and core PCE year-on-year growth was 3.3%, meeting expectations but indicating continued inflation resilience. At the same time, US consumer confidence has dropped to a year-to-date low, with real consumer spending showing almost zero growth, reflecting that high mortgage rates and living costs are continuously suppressing demand. Consequently, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September have risen from about 36% to 42%. Remarks by Waller at the Jackson Hole meeting regarding the sources of inflation and the interest rate path will serve as important signals. On the other hand, US federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and the market is beginning to bet that the Treasury may reduce long-term debt issuance and increase short-term debt, as well as expand buybacks to alleviate long-end pressure, though the massive fiscal financing needs remain challenging. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has signaled a hawkish stance, with September rate hike expectations nearing 90%. The return of Japanese capital and competition in global bond supply may further raise long-term funding costs. Overall, the coexistence of cooling US demand and sticky inflation, combined with US fiscal expansion, Japan's monetary normalization, and energy supply risks, continues to limit the downward space for global interest rates. For stocks and crypto assets, the key moving forward is not just whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates, but whether long-term yields and global liquidity will maintain high pressure.

On August 27, the US PCE year-on-year increase for July was 3.7%, and the core PCE year-on-year increase was 3.3%, both in line with expectations, indicating continued inflation resilience. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence has dropped to a year-to-date low, with real consumer spending showing nearly zero growth, reflecting that high mortgage rates and living costs are continuously suppressing demand. As a result, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September have risen from about 36% to 42%. Remarks by Waller at the Jackson Hole meeting regarding the sources of inflation and the path of interest rates will serve as important signals. On the other hand, US federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and the market is beginning to bet that the Treasury may reduce long-term debt issuance and expand buybacks to alleviate pressure on the long end. However, the enormous fiscal financing needs remain challenging to address. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has signaled a hawkish stance, with September rate hike expectations nearing 90%. The return of Japanese funds and global competition for bond supply may further increase long-term funding costs. Overall, the coexistence of cooling US demand and sticky inflation, along with US fiscal expansion, Japanese monetary normalization, and energy supply risks, continues to limit the downward space for global interest rates. For stocks and crypto assets, the key moving forward is not just whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates, but whether long-term yields and global liquidity will maintain high pressure.

On August 27, Ajith Nair, Chief Investment Officer of Isio Investment Management, stated that the Jackson Hole symposium may not focus heavily on immediate policy decisions, but rather on the long-term direction of monetary policy, the central bank's policy thinking, and its impact on investors. "While the market will naturally pay attention to interest rates, this year, it is more noteworthy that Waller is making his debut at Jackson Hole as the Fed Chair, and what this may reveal about his vision for the Fed's future development," Nair pointed out. Under Waller's leadership, one of the most significant changes appears to be his desire to reduce the market's reliance on Fed forecasts and policy path estimates, and this Jackson Hole conference may further reinforce that approach.